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com/cgi -bin/prnh/20010807/CMALOGO )
"The recent cutbacks in the auto industry are the main reason that
activity slowed in May, but unusually cool weather last month probably
contributed to the weakness in our index," said Dana Johnson, chief economist
at Comerica Bank. But economic integration can instead
take the form of protectionism and excessive regulation, which hinder growth
instead of promoting it, according to Saving.

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Comerica Bank, Michigan's oldest and largest bank, is the lead subsidiary
of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), a multi-state financial services
provider headquartered in Detroit.
Economists generally favor further economic integration because of the
benefits of free trade and free markets."
"When we take into account the normal seasonal variation in natural gas
prices and the amount of natural gas in storage, however, we find compelling
evidence that U. natural gas prices continue to be related to those for
crude oil.
In "Foreign Exchange Policy and Banking Reform in China," Assistant
Economist Dong Fu explains why the country must quickly resolve problems with
its fragile banking system if it is to have a more flexible foreign exchange
policy.

revolt claiming

"I would not be surprised if the May reading turns out to be the near-term
bottom for our index, but consistent gains in activity are not likely over the
second half of 2005.
"There is general agreement among economists and central bankers alike
that monetary policy should be rule based, although there is less agreement as
to what form desirable rules should take," Wynne writes.
Find the July/August issue of Southwest Economy online at
http: //www.

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The Keynesian and Post-Keynesian schools are a revolt against the classical insistence on the price mechanism, claiming that prices do not always respond in the desired ways and so policy tools such as increasing aggregate demand and the judicious use of inflation may help the pricing process.

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business cycle."
This is the conflict of visions that Europe currently confronts, Saving
writes. "If Europeans wish to be less prosperous in the future so they can be
more equal today, economics cannot call the wisdom of that decision into
question.
Although natural gas and refined products seem to be used less often as
substitutes for each other, Brown finds that "oil prices do still matter for
natural gas prices, but the old rules of thumb relating natural gas prices to
those for oil are of limited usefulness.

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"
The Michigan Business Activity Index (MBAI) represents 10 different
measures of Michigan economic activity compiled monthly by the Economics
Department of Comerica Bank. Brown
examines the linkage between natural gas and crude oil prices.

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Fu explains that China's four main state-owned commercial banks are
technically bankrupt because of low profitability and large bad-loan
portfolios.

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The MBAI is seasonally adjusted, corrected for
inflation , and expressed on an index basis with base year 1996 equals 100."
In "Natural Gas Pricing: Do Oil Prices Still Matter?" Stephen P.

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Michigan Economy Faltered During May Comerica Reports

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Globalization EU Economy Energy Prices and Chinese Banking Reform Topics of Dallas Fed's Southwest Economy

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DETROIT, The Michigan Business Activity
Index, compiled by Comerica Bank, fell four points to 102 in May. But economics can reveal its consequences.

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Even if aggressive discounting helps to stabilize the
market share of General Motors and Ford, profit, employment, and compensation
trends won't be strong in the Michigan-based auto industry for some time to
come. Goods, services
and capital flowed just as readily across national borders pre-World War I as
they do today.
Only when the banks are adequately capitalized, fully commercialized and
efficient in their operation will they be able to handle a flexible foreign
exchange regime, according to Fu.

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The relationship is relatively stable and complex," he writes.

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That is the
lowest reading for the index since September 2001.S. DALLAS, The latest issue of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas' Southwest Economy examines globalization, the EU economy,
energy prices and Chinese banking reform. What's changed is the monetary standard. Saving says that integration of the European Union using a
French or German economic model would hamper the European economy. A.

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newscom.
In economic terms, globalization is not a new phenomenon.

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Wynne says future Dallas Fed publications will examine in greater depth
how monetary policy should be conducted in a more globalized world.
While either course is consistent with the ever-closer union to which EU
leaders have committed, only one would enable the EU to take its place among
"the world's most dynamic and fastest-growing economies. Brown is
director of energy economics and microeconomic policy analysis.

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He also raises the issue of globalization 's effect on inflation, noting
that debate continues on whether the lower inflation most countries have
experienced in recent years is the result of increasing world trade or central
bankers learning their limits when it comes to fine-tuning the economy.

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So far this year, the index
has averaged about 3 percent lower than in 2004.
(Logo: http://www.

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The MBAI series has been calculated monthly since 1957 and depicts state
economic activity over seven full swings of the U.
In "Globalization and Monetary Policy," Vice President Mark Wynne provides
a historical perspective on globalization.
In "European Economic Integration: A Conflict of Visions," Senior
Economist Jason L.